How many points do Maccabi Tel Aviv need in the Europa League group stage in order to advance to the first knock-out stage? Well, that depends, but perhaps a closer look at the dynamics of the group stage will provide some clues. Have your pocket calculators at the ready
Shortly after the draw for the group stage of the Europa League, some of the sports world's greatest mathematical minds set out to determine the optimal number of points each club require to finish at least second in their group and advance to the following knock-out stage of the competition. No doubt the Determinists will tell you that 7 to 8 points will suffice to capture second position in the group, while the Free Will advocates will insist that nothing less than 10 points will do. The final answer to this "million dollar" question (or rather "million shekel" question, as that's the reward to clubs for surviving the group stage) will only be obtained in December when the group stage matches reach their conclusion, but a closer look at the results of the group stage in recent years will surely give us an idea of the proportions of the task each club face. Bottom line – unless you lose every one of your group stage matches, a great deal depends on how well your group rivals fare.
The English club Tottenham Hotspur, for example, were 2012/13 group A leaders with 7 points after their first three matches and seemed dead certs to reach the next phase. Two losses to their principle group rivals, the Russian side Rubin Kazan and the Greek club PAOK Thessaloniki, and a lone victory by Irish minnows Shamrock Rovers, left Spurs with 10 points and a third place finish at the end of the group stage. No doubt their fellow Brits Birmingham and even French giants Paris Saint Germain would sympathise with Spurs as they underwent exactly the same fate that season. The Frenchmen also put paid to the notion that all you need to advance is to win all three home ties, having done just that but still falling short in the end.
On the other hand have a look at Italian side Napoli and the Belgian club Anderlecht in the 2010/11 season, who both advanced on 7 points alone. With Anderlecht there were no surprises, as Russian giants Zenith St. Petersburg slew every group rival, home and away, to leave the other three group members (besides Anderlecht the Croatian side Hajduk Split and the Greeks AEK Athens) to fight it out for second. And with only 12 points left to be won in the group, 7 points proved sufficient. Napoli's group was more evenly balanced, producing eight draws in the twelve matches played in the group. And Napoli's 7 point second place finish was achieved with one lone victory, in the last round to boot, against Romanian side Steaua Bucharest.
Just to make the pot a bit richer, let's have a look at just a few more tantilising stats from recent Europa League group stage dramas. The Austrians Salzburg join Anderlecht and Zenith as the only clubs to emerge from the group stage with the whole kitty of 18 points. Aforementioned Shamrock Rovers, on the other hand, are the only club since the competition's 2009 change in format to finish the group stage empty-handed. In 2010/11 Bulgarian outfit Levski Sofia accumulated 7 points in group C and still finished fourth and last season German club Bayer Leverkusen finished on 13 points and only finished second. So far Israeli clubs go, Hapoel Tel Aviv hold the record number of 12 points from the 2009/10 season and saw them head a group that included German side Hamburg, Scottish champions Celtic and the Austrians Rapid Wien.
Feeling confused? You're not alone. But what in any case can we take away from this fascinating tale of points and positions? Well, so long a team keeps winning, their place in the next stage of a competition is guaranteed. As soon as they start losing, it's out with the calculators once again.
